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Strategic Alert --

sources are focused on combating the Israeli
STRATFOR.COM occupation of Lebanon.
Global Intelligence Update The best thing for Mubarak would be for Israel to stay
23 February 2000
in Lebanon for as long as possible. This will keep
Hezbollah occupied and away from Egypt. Mubarak's
Mubarak Supports Fundamentalists statement is a calculated attempt to give Israel's right-
-- In Lebanon wing factions added ammunition to oppose plans for a
military pullout.

Summary A second effect of Mubarak's visit is that it supports
the moderate regime of Iranian President Mohammad
In a surprise visit, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Khatami. Since 1979, Iran has seen itself as the guard-
visited Lebanon Feb. 19 and issued a statement support- ian of the fundamentalist Islamic revolution and has
ing Hezbollah in its conflict with occupying Israeli supported fundamentalist movements in many countries
troops. In doing so, Mubarak puts a damper on the - including Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey. Although
Israel-Syria peace process and supports the new gov- Mubarak would prefer a secular regime in Tehran, the
ernment of Iran. Both actions help him contain Egypt's moderate position of Khatami is preferable to those of
own fundamentalists. his conservative rivals. By supporting Hezbollah,
Mubarak can show Tehran's conservatives that the Is-
Analysis lamic revolution is alive and well. This takes pressure
off Khatami. Greater power for Khatami, who slowly
has been improving ties with Egypt, will likely result in
President Hosni Mubarak became the first Egyptian
head of state to visit Lebanon in a surprise visit Feb. 19. decreased Iranian support for Egypt's fundamentalists.
He stood with Lebanese president Emile Lahoud in up-
holding the "right" of the Lebanese Hezbollah to con- Mubarak's statement reflects his own concern with in-
tinue attacks on Israeli troops stationed in south ternal stability, but it does little to help the peace proc-
Lebanon. Mubarak's motivation, however, lies less with ess between Syria and Israel. This is absolutely fine
any sympathies for his fellow Muslims than with his with Syria, which benefits from the current stalemate. [
desire to keep his own country stable. http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/commentary/m9911020
210.htm] It maintains a relatively stable border with Is-
Islamic fundamentalism has been a major security con- rael and a de facto peace, but at the same time gets Is-
cern for Egypt for the past 50 years. A major funda- rael to handle the Hezbollah militants and provides
mentalist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, was founded justification for Syria's continued presence in northern
as an Egyptian political movement in 1928, but turned Lebanon. Egypt benefits from the status quo as well,
violent after World War II. Mubarak's predecessor, An- because a large portion of Israel's military is tied down
war Sadat, was assassinated by an Islamic extremist in in Lebanon.
1981, and Mubarak has escaped several attempts on his
own life. Fundamentalists are still active in Egypt, de- Supporting the Hezbollah with mere words costs
spite waves of arrests by the government. In 1997, Mubarak little. It may not amount to very much, but
more than 60 tourists were killed near Luxor, with there is a small chance his statements could pay off.
blame falling on Muslim extremists supported by Su- Egypt's internal stability, Iran's factional maneuvering
dan, and ultimately Iran. and Syria's attempts to delay an Israeli pullout all stand
to benefit from Mubarak's cameo appearance. If it
In combating fundamentalists, Mubarak is attempting to doesn't work, Mubarak has lost nothing.
keep them isolated by cutting off foreign sources of (c) 2000, WNI Inc.
men and materiel. However, his tactic is threatened by ___________________________________
the Israeli-Syrian peace process, which if resolved SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLI-
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